With E3 just around the corner (next week!) we’ve come upon the annual tidal wave of game and hardware announcements. While we are knee deep in this current generation of game systems, the horizon of the next next gen is opening upon us. Nintendo has already stated that their next portable hardware, the 3DS, will be revealed at the conference. While it may be time for a refresh for the portables, now on the market for 6+ years, the dominoes are beginning to fall indicating the impending reveals of the next consoles we will be purchasing.
But, are we ready for them?
That question hit me recently, as I’ve been playing through Final Fantasy XIII and marveling at the visuals and tech behind the giant game. Knowing that both MOVE and Natal will be arriving this year, I wondered whether the current generation (already 5 years removed) won’t be disappearing anytime soon. Apart from a prolonged PS2 lifespan, the previous GameCube/Xbox generation lasted 4-5 years. We are at that point right now in the current gen since the XBox 360’s release in 2005. Thanks to firmware enhancements and exciting games, the consoles have seemed fresh and up-to-date every year. There may not need to be another generation for a while.
With that said, though, the beginnings of the next cycle are upon us. Natal, MOVE, and even the DSi were those stop-gaps, but do they signal the middle of the consoles’ lifespans? Or are we near the end of this generation already? Hardware manufacturers are always working on new concepts, many of which never make it to production. Those that do are released when several circumstances align and permit: price of technology, sales dips, and competitive landscape.
I’ve taken a look at what that means for the current timeline, and how the dominoes are starting to fall towards the next cycle. I’ve made the analogy of a typical 7-day week, and how the life cycle of the console fits within that week; Sunday morning is the beginning, and Saturday night is the end.
3DS
DS – Saturday Night
Nintendo announced that the 3DS will be revealed at E3 this year. The portable, which launched in 2004, has maintained success as the highest-selling gaming hardware product each month across the globe. Yet, sales have dipped (or at least leveled off) and fierce competition from the more powerful iPhone and iPad have spurred Nintendo to launch their next product to compete. While some have noted that it may be as powerful as a modern-day console — maybe this is the WiiHD that everyone wants — it signals that they understand that their product has been pushed to the technological limit. The 3DS will probably go on sale this holiday season in the US, and early next year in Japan.
PSP2
PSP/PSPgo – Saturday Morning
The PSP is dead in the US, yet wildly successful in Japan. The PSPgo was a disaster of epic proportions for Sony, who tried to compete with Apple’s download-only focus. The product may be focusing on being too much of a console-in-your-hands rather than a true portable, and while the hardware is impressive, it just doesn’t have the kind of portable games that we want. We may demand a new version now, but probably won’t see anything announced until Tokyo Game Show for early 2011.
Wii 2
Wii – Late Friday Night
This is the first console domino that needs to/will fall. Nintendo denies a need for a refresh, but Wii sales have dipped considerably this year (even though they still regularly outsell the competition). The core audience has abandoned the Wii, save for the random Mario or Zelda game that arrives. Great experiences like Dead Space: Extraction and MadWorld were ignored. Nintendo claims that they won’t release a console that is simply an HD upgrade, instead focusing on revolutionary hardware, and that strategy may be to their favor. While certainly working on all manners of technology, waiting to see what happens with Natal and MOVE over the next year will help determine what the next steps are. The Wii 2 won’t arrive this year, but expect it to be the console domino that falls in 2011.
XBox 720
XBox 360 – Hump Day Happy Hour
Microsoft will bill Natal as a sort of XBox 360.5; more than just an accessory, it will herald a re-branding of the console to capture some of the Wii audience ready to move on to unique (and high-def gaming). Natal and the slim essentially buy Microsoft a couple more years in the 360’s life before the need to move on to a more concrete architecture that may be better align with their mobile and even Windows strategies. Holiday 2012 sounds right for this to take place, as Natal will have been two years old by then, and Microsoft will have seen what Nintendo has done with the Wii2.
PlayStation 4
PS3 – Tuesday Morning
Sony’s PS3 console is arguably the most ambitious and technologically advanced of this gaming hardware cycle. Its design is forward-thinking in processing power, inclusion of BluRay and WiFi, and Cell chipset. The slim redesign and price cut have spurred worldwide sales increases. Even with MOVE in the pipeline, there is nothing stopping Sony from releasing a Natal-fighting camera tech later on. Should the company continue to drop price, the PS3 may be a viable platform for years to come. If there was any indication of this, the 10-year old PS2 shows that Sony consoles continue to sell well past their prime. A new PlayStation in 2013 or as late as 2014 would be the earliest one would peg a successor.
iPhone 5/iPad 2
iPhone/iPad – It’s Always the Weekend
The iPhone/iPad refresh every year, and will continue to do so. Apple has created an OS in which a new piece of hardware is released each quarter demanding our attention. As a wild card, Apple became a gaming powerhouse in a matter of just 2 years. It’s hard to work out what Apple will do next, but we can always expect new hardware.
Let’s face it, we still have a lot of great games to play, and a lot more that we would be happy to play on our current consoles for years to come. Apart from the Wii and the hand helds, the XBox and PlayStation still have a few years left in them. This hardware cycle is in its prime, even if the next cycle is already starting.
[PS4/XBox 720 concept images courtesy Tai Chiem]
1 Comment